Evaluation of the impact that the changes in tuberculosis treatment implemented in Brazil in 2009 have had on disease control in the country

OBJECTIVE To analyze the impact that the 2009 changes in tuberculosis treatment in Brazil had on the rates of cure, tuberculosis recurrence, mortality, treatment abandonment, and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS An ordinary least squares regression model was used in order to perform an interrupted time series analysis of secondary data collected from the Brazilian Tuberculosis Case Registry Database for the period between January of 2003 and December of 2014. RESULTS The 2009 changes in tuberculosis treatment in Brazil were found to have no association with reductions in the total number of cases (β = 2.17; 95% CI: -3.80 to 8.14; p = 0.47) and in the number of new cases (β = -0.97; 95% CI: -5.89 to 3.94; p = 0.70), as well as having no association with treatment abandonment rates (β = 0.40; 95% CI: -1.12 to 1.93; p = 0.60). The changes in tuberculosis treatment also showed a trend toward an association with decreased cure rates (β = -4.14; 95% CI: -8.63 to 0.34; p = 0.07), as well as an association with increased mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis (β = 0.77; 95% CI: 0.16 to 1.38; p = 0.01). Although there was a significant increase in MDR-TB before and after the changes (p < 0.0001), there was no association between the intervention (i.e., the changes in tuberculosis treatment) and the increase in MDR-TB cases. CONCLUSIONS The changes in tuberculosis treatment were unable to contain the decrease in cure rates, the increase in treatment abandonment rates, and the increase in MDR-TB rates, being associated with increased mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis during the study period.Keywords: Tuberculosis, pulmonary/epidemiology; Tuberculosis, pulmonary/drug therapy; Tuberculosis, pulmonary/mortality; Interrupted time series analysis; Drug resistance, multiple; Drug compounding.